The Underground's Fame Problem

The kids in my South Florida neighborhood don't listen to Nettspend. They listen to 21 Savage and NAV. They still listen to the songs I was listening to as a kid. Why is that?

You could argue rap has stagnated, that the artists we support today are direct iterations of what was coming out ten years ago. You wouldn't be wrong, but that has always been the case. The Lil Uzis and Travis Scotts wouldn't exist without the Lil Waynes and Kanye Wests. So why aren't today's rappers streaming like before?

They are. The numbers just look smaller because social media has put a much bigger lens on them.

Artists used to spend time building local fanbases and connecting with their contemporaries before social media noticed. Now social media is the first place an artist goes when they start making music. Also, everyone creates content. User-generated content is at an all-time high, and underground fanbases are the most online fanbases there are. The result is that these artists' faces get broadcast and amplified to a degree no previous generation experienced this early in their careers.

The problem isn't that these artists aren't streaming as much as their predecessors. It's that they haven't reached the point in their careers where those streams are achievable. Their journey is publicized and dissected in real time, which makes them look famous. But a lot of these kids are cultural stars, not musicians. The streams will follow but they just haven't yet.

For example, early life crisis, Nettspend's debut studio album, sold around 21k first week. Playboi Carti's Self-Titled sold around 28k. The gap isn't huge, even though critics will tell you Nettspend and his peers are streaming far less than their predecessors.

(The long-term difference is that Self-Titled had "Magnolia." early life crisis has "you ready?”) 

These artists are more famous than their music. Their streaming numbers are clouded by their Instagram follower counts. Culturally, they are as big as A Boogie Wit Da Hoodie was to high schoolers in 2018. The music just hasn't caught up yet, because they are still early in their careers.

Innovative sounds always capture the underground years before the mainstream begins to accept them. Right now there is a gold rush of sounds building a new underground scene and pushing its popularity higher. But it's hard to find one song that has crossed over into a mainstream hit. Nettspend, Osamason, Fakemink, Xaviersobased, Che, and the rest of the scene have all failed to make one.

The only real underground to mainstream crossover in recent years is Rich Amiri's "One Call." His perception in the underground has been tainted, but his streaming numbers put him ahead of his class. Some will say 2hollis crossed over with "poster boy" but I don’t think so and the numbers have stagnated.

None of this is a knock on these artists' ability to make a hit. The point is they aren't at the stage in their careers where they should be expected to have one yet. Social media has loaded that expectation onto them because they are celebrities, but haven’t had a chance to mature musically. The fame may even be stunting that growth, which means the evolution could take longer than it used to.

So yes, these artists are developing more slowly, and that shows up in the streaming numbers. They are more famous than their catalogs justify, but they have time. Yeat and Ken Carson were in this same position a few years ago, and now they are headlining festivals. This underground race will be decided by whoever drops a hit first. Nettspend and Osamason are both primed to become global superstars. One of them just needs the song.

(EsDeeKid is the exception that proves the rule. His growth off a debut album was astronomical, and his streaming numbers already look mainstream. But his longevity is the open question, because he hasn't shown much personality and doesn't have the kind of core fanbase the others have built. When the music is all there is, there isn't much for a fan to hold onto.)